This article summarizes global demand–supply trends through 2026, what drives flat vs long demand by industry, and how trade barriers and Thailand’s TIS standards (including TIS 1479 and TIS 107) can affect downstream availability, lead times, and compliance risk.

Two downstream steel product families dominate:

• Flat products: sheet/coil/plate used in manufacturing (e.g., hot‑rolled coil, cold‑rolled sheet, coated/galvanized sheet, plate)
• Long products: bars/sections used in construction and infrastructure (e.g., rebar, wire rod, beams/sections)

Key signals for 2026

• Global finished steel demand is forecast to rise ~1.3% in 2026 to ~1,772.5 Mt, after a flat 2025.
• China is forecast to continue declining in 2026, while world ex‑China grows faster.
• ASEAN‑5 demand is forecast to reach ~84.1 Mt in 2026 (+4.0%), supporting both long (construction) and flat (manufacturing) demand.
• Trade barriers are tightening (EU safeguards and quota proposals; US Section 232 tariffs and AD/CVD actions), reshaping flows and regional price spreads.
• Thailand standards are moving: structural flat steel rules (TIS 1479‑2566) and carbon steel tube rules (TIS 107‑2566) both raise the importance of certified supply and documentation. (Krungsri)

Flat vs long products: what drives demand?

Flat products (manufacturing‑led)

Flat steel demand is driven mainly by:

• Automotive and transport equipment
• Machinery and mechanical equipment
• Appliances and consumer durables
• Energy and shipbuilding (plate)

These sectors can be highly sensitive to exports, FX, and trade policy.

Long products (construction‑led)

Long steel demand is driven mainly by:

• Residential and commercial construction
• Infrastructure projects (transport, utilities, public works)
• Industrial buildings and warehouses

Long products are typically more sensitive to government budgets, project pipelines, and interest rates.

Where steel is consumed: demand by industry (global)

Worldsteel’s sectoral breakdown provides a practical map of downstream demand drivers:

• Building & infrastructure: 52%
• Mechanical equipment: 16%
• Automotive: 12%
• Metal products: 10%
• Smaller shares for other transport, electrical equipment, and domestic appliances

Why this matters: Because construction is over half of global steel use, long products remain closely tied to construction cycles. Meanwhile, the combined manufacturing sectors (autos + machinery + metal products) keep flat products sensitive to industrial output and trade conditions.

Global demand–supply trend into 2026

Demand: modest growth, uneven by region

Worldsteel’s Short Range Outlook (Oct 2025) forecasts:

• 2025: ~1,749 Mt (flat)
• 2026: ~1,772.5 Mt (+1.3%)

Selected 2026 demand forecasts (finished steel):

• China: ~831.1 Mt (‑1.0%)
• EU+UK: ~146.6 Mt (+3.2%)
• United States: ~92.3 Mt (+1.8%)
• ASEAN‑5: ~84.1 Mt (+4.0%)

Supply: continued export pressure triggers policy response

When supply runs ahead of domestic demand, exports rise and policy reactions follow. Reuters reported China’s steel exports were poised for record highs in 2025 and that the export surge has triggered a wave of trade actions globally.

International outlook: China, US, EU

China

Worldsteel expects continued demand decline in 2026.
S&P Global reporting has emphasized that manufacturing demand can remain steadier than construction, but construction weakness remains the major drag—important for long-product demand.

United States: Section 232 tariff rate and additional barriers

Section 232: The White House announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% effective June 4, 2025 for most partners (with the UK treated differently).

Other barriers (including for China and Thailand): Beyond Section 232, the US frequently applies antidumping/countervailing (AD/CVD) measures. The USITC stated in 2025 that revoking existing antidumping orders on hot‑rolled steel products from multiple countries including China and Thailand would likely lead to continuation/recurrence of injury—meaning those orders remain in place.

European Union: safeguards through 2026 and tightening discussions

The European Commission notes the EU’s steel safeguard measure runs to June 30, 2026 (subject to review).
Reuters reported the Commission proposed cutting tariff‑free import quotas substantially and applying a 50% duty above quota, aiming to support domestic producers.

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ASEAN and Thailand: regional demand and product signals

ASEAN‑5: steady growth into 2026

Worldsteel forecasts ASEAN‑5 demand rising to ~84.1 Mt in 2026 (+4.0%).

Thailand: monitoring flat vs long demand is more useful than “headline steel” alone

Thailand’s downstream demand signal is clearer when separated into product families and tracked monthly/quarterly.

Example (September 2025 consumption):

• Long products: ~693,679 tonnes
• Flat products: ~867,296 tonnes

ISIT’s “Thailand Steel Outlook” also breaks down major flat items (e.g., HRC/HR sheet, CR sheet, galvanized sheet), which helps distinguish construction-driven vs manufacturing-driven movements.

Krungsri Research’s outlook (2025–2027) similarly supports the view that:

• Flat products (notably HRC) remain tied to manufacturing demand
• Long products (bars/sections) remain tied to construction and infrastructure pipelines

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Thailand standards: TIS changes affecting downstream procurement

Thailand’s standards are increasingly important as quality, safety, and procurement compliance filters—especially for construction and structural applications.

TIS 1479‑2566: Hot‑rolled flat steel for general structure

TISI’s published standard document defines requirements for “hot rolled flat steel for general structure.”
A WTO TBT notification addendum indicates the ministerial regulation linked to this standard would enter into force on 24 December 2025.

Downstream implication: structural flat products (used in fabricated structures, buildings, and general construction) will require stronger documentation and conformance to updated requirements, which affects sourcing and lead times.

TIS 107‑2566: Carbon steel tubes for general structure (new changes)

TIS 107 covers carbon steel tubes used for engineering, architectural, and general structural purposes—typically round, square, and rectangular hollow sections. Thailand notified the WTO in 2025 of a draft ministerial regulation that would mandate carbon steel tubes for general structure to conform to TIS 107‑2566 (2023), with entry into force proposed after 90 days following publication in the Government Gazette. (web.wtocenter.org.tw)

Separately, Krungsri Research notes a key practical change in the updated TIS 107‑2566 standard:

• Effective 2 November 2024, the standard removes minimum circumference and thickness sizes for carbon steel pipes used in general construction.
• The intent is to raise quality across sizes and reduce circulation of low-quality, non‑marked goods, while allowing public projects to use pipes of all sizes under the official standard umbrella. (Krungsri)

Downstream implication: these changes tighten compliance expectations for steel tube supply (including smaller sizes), increasing the importance of certified mills, traceability, and complete documentation—especially for projects tied to public procurement requirements. (Krungsri)

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What to watch into 2026: a flat vs long dashboard

Flat products (HRC/CRC/coated/plate):

• Auto, machinery, and appliance output trends
• Import policy shifts (EU safeguards/quota changes; US tariff and AD/CVD enforcement)
• Standards enforcement affecting coated and structural flat steels

Long products (rebar/sections/wire rod):

• Infrastructure execution rates and construction starts
• Public works specifications and standards enforcement (including tube and structural material compliance)
• Import competition and supplier qualification (Krungsri)

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Definitions

• Flat products: Steel in sheets/coils/plate (HRC, CRC, coated/galvanized, plate), heavily used in manufacturing and fabrication.
• Long products: Steel in bars/rods/sections (rebar, wire rod, beams/sections), heavily used in construction and infrastructure.
• HRC: Hot‑rolled coil—flat steel rolled at high temperature; a base input for many downstream products.
• AD/CVD: Antidumping/countervailing duties—trade remedies applied to specific products/countries.
• Section 232:S. national‑security trade measure applying tariffs to steel imports.
• TIS / TISI: Thai Industrial Standard / Thai Industrial Standards Institute.
• TIS 1479‑2566: Thai standard for hot‑rolled flat steel for general structure.
• TIS 107‑2566: Thai standard for carbon steel tubes for general structure; updated rules remove minimum circumference/thickness thresholds and a WTO-notified draft regulation would mandate conformance. (Krungsri)

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References (APA)

Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri Research). (2025). Thailand industry outlook 2025–2027: Steel and steel products.

European Commission. (2024, June 25). EU prolongs steel safeguard measure until June 2026.

Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand. (2025). Thailand Steel Outlook: September 2025.

Reuters. (2025, September 16). China steel exports poised for record high, risking further tariff backlash.

Reuters. (2025, October 7). EU to halve steel import quotas to revive domestic industry.

The White House. (2025, June 3). Adjusting imports of aluminum and steel into the United States (Proclamation; raises steel and aluminum tariffs effective June 4, 2025).

U.S. International Trade Commission. (2025, September 3). USITC makes determinations in five-year (sunset) reviews concerning hot-rolled steel products from China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Ukraine.

World Steel Association. (2025). World Steel in Figures 2025 (steel use by sector).

World Steel Association. (2025, October). Short Range Outlook: October 2025 (global and regional steel demand forecasts to 2026).

World Trade Organization. (2025, August 20). G/TBT/N/THA/787: Draft regulation mandating carbon steel tubes for general structure to conform to TIS 107‑2566 (2023). (web.wtocenter.org.tw)

Thai Industrial Standards Institute. (2024). TIS 1479‑2566: Hot rolled flat steel for general structure (standard document).

World Trade Organization. (2025, July 8). TBT notification addendum: Ministerial regulation referencing TIS 1479‑2566; entry into force 24 December 2025.

Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri Research). (2025). Thailand industry outlook summary 2025–2027 (Construction section: TIS 107‑2566 effective date and scope change). (Krungsri)